IMD Predicts Below-Normal Monsoon 2026: Rainfall Expected at 92% of Long-Term Average

New Delhi:
In a major update that could have widespread implications across the country, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a below-normal monsoon for 2026, estimating rainfall at just 92% of the long-term average (LPA).

This announcement has raised concerns among farmers, policymakers, and economists, as the monsoon plays a crucial role in India’s agriculture-driven economy.

🌾 Why This Matters So Much

India heavily depends on monsoon rains for agriculture, with nearly half of the farmland relying on rainfall rather than irrigation. A weaker monsoon could:

• Impact crop production such as rice, pulses, and oilseeds
• Reduce farmers’ income and rural demand
• Increase food prices and inflation
• Put pressure on water reservoirs and groundwater levels

Experts warn that even a slight deficiency in rainfall can create ripple effects across the economy.

📊 What Does “92% of LPA” Mean?

The IMD categorizes monsoon rainfall as:

• Normal: 96%–104% of LPA
• Below Normal: 90%–96% of LPA

With the 2026 forecast at 92%, it clearly falls into the below-normal category — signaling a potential shortfall in rainfall across several regions.

Sub: Long Range Forecast for Southwest Monsoon Seasonal Rainfall 2026

(1) India Meteorological Department predicts below normal southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole during 2026.

(2) Quantitatively, the southwest monsoon seasonal… pic.twitter.com/c9dlF6bFAY — India Meteorological Department (@Indiametdept) April 13, 2026

⚠️ Regions That Could Be Affected

While a nationwide average is projected, some regions may experience significant rainfall deficits, especially:

• Central India
• Parts of Northwest India
• Rain-fed agricultural zones

Meanwhile, certain areas could still receive normal or even above-normal rainfall, leading to uneven distribution.

🌦️ Impact on Economy & Daily Life

A weak monsoon doesn’t just affect farmers — its impact is widespread:

• 💰 Higher food prices due to reduced crop output
• 🚰 Water shortages in urban and rural areas
• ⚡ Increased demand for electricity (due to heat)
• 📉 Slower rural economic growth

Economists closely track monsoon forecasts because they directly influence India’s GDP and inflation trends.

🧠 Expert Insight

Weather experts emphasize that monsoon patterns can still change based on global climatic factors like El Niño and ocean temperatures. The IMD will continue to update forecasts in the coming months.

The IMD’s early warning of a below-normal monsoon in 2026 serves as a crucial signal for preparedness. From farmers to policymakers, proactive planning will be key to minimizing the impact of a potentially weaker rainy season.