October is usually the month when India's electricity demand cools off. This year it hasn't. A weak monsoon, falling hydropower output and low coal stocks at thermal plants have left several states scrambling for electricity after sunset, and some are paying record prices to keep the lights on. Tamil Nadu has signed up emergency power at up to Rs 37 per unit – several times the normal market rate – to avoid load-shedding.
The scale of India's power shortage shows up clearly in the national numbers. India's power deficit reached 560 million units (kWh) in September, the highest since August 2023, and demand has stayed high well into October.
India power shortage: why supply is falling short
Hydropower has dried up
Hydroelectric generation fell about 20% year-on-year in September, as El Niño weakened rainfall and left reservoirs lower than normal. Hydro plants are usually the quickest way to meet the evening peak, so their weakness hurts most at exactly the wrong time of day.
Coal plants are running low on fuel
Coal-fired generation actually rose 13.3% in September, but it has not been enough. Grid India data showed about 47% of coal-based plants had critically low fuel stocks – below a quarter of their mandated levels. Disruptions in coal mining and rail movement, along with routine maintenance shutdowns, have tightened supply further.
Solar can't help after sunset
India now produces a large share of its daytime power from solar, but battery storage is still limited. Once the sun sets, demand from homes, air conditioners and irrigation pumps stays high while solar output drops to zero. That is why the shortage is worst in the evening hours.
Which states are asking for more power
Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Delhi have asked the Centre for additional allocations, mainly to avoid night-time power cuts. Gujarat's demand hit a record 29,822 MW on October 16. Madhya Pradesh, normally a surplus state, has had to arrange supply from Punjab and Uttar Pradesh, while Punjab itself is short by roughly 800 to 1,000 MW during the paddy season.
Tamil Nadu's costly bet
Tamil Nadu's case is the most striking. On October 6, the state distribution company TNPDCL (formerly Tangedco) floated an emergency tender for supply between October 12 and 31 – 3,000 MW for the 6 pm to midnight window and 1,500 MW for midnight to 2 am.
For the evening slot, only about 2,001 MW was offered, at prices from Rs 33.37 to Rs 37 per unit; 181 MW came at the top rate of Rs 37. The early-morning bids were accepted at Rs 31.99 to Rs 34.49. All the bidders were gas-based plants, which can ramp up quickly but are expensive to run.
The state's evening peak touched 20,527 MW on October 12, compared with a peak of 17,887 MW last October. State minister C.T.R. Nirmal Kumar has said wind generation fell to about 500 MW against 3,500 MW contracted, and that supply from central generating stations was short by around 1,850 MW. Officials argue that paying a premium is better than cutting power, while critics, including former minister V. Senthil Balaji, say the utility should have planned earlier and bought cheaper power.
The numbers at a glance
| National power deficit (Sept 2026) | 560 million units, highest since Aug 2023 |
| Hydro generation (Sept, YoY) | Down about 20% |
| Coal generation (Sept, YoY) | Up 13.3% |
| Coal plants with critical stocks | About 47% |
| Gujarat record demand | 29,822 MW (October 16) |
| Tamil Nadu evening peak | 20,527 MW (October 12) |
| Tamil Nadu top purchase price | Rs 37 per unit (181 MW) |
| Tamil Nadu tender window | October 12 to 31 |
What it means for you
For now, most consumers will not see an immediate jump in their electricity bills. But costly emergency purchases widen the gap between what discoms spend and what they earn. That gap is eventually covered by state subsidies, more borrowing or tariff revisions – so taxpayers and consumers end up paying one way or another. In states that choose not to buy expensive power, the cost shows up instead as evening power cuts, which hurt small businesses, students and farmers relying on electric pumps.
Industry also feels the pinch. Factories running night shifts and businesses that depend on steady supply may have to lean on diesel generators, pushing up operating costs at a time when crude prices are already high.
What happens next
The Centre usually keeps about 14 to 15 GW from coal and hydro plants to allot during shortages, but most of it was already committed by October. The Power Ministry has asked Coal India to raise output and the Railways to speed up coal transport to power plants, and is pushing renewable developers to add battery storage. Relief could come with cooler weather and the northeast monsoon in the south, but until then, the evening peak will remain a daily test for grid managers.
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