India and the United States are on the verge of sealing a long-delayed trade deal, according to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Speaking in Mumbai on Tuesday, October 20, 2026, after talks with External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, Rubio said the two sides were "very, very close" to an agreement, with only a small number of points left to settle.
The comments came during Rubio's three-day visit to India, which also saw a rare trilateral meeting in Mumbai with UAE Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, focused on energy and connectivity.
Background: A Trade Deal Stuck in Limbo
The India-US trade talks have been through a bumpy year. An interim deal agreed on February 2, 2026, would have cut US tariffs on Indian goods to 18 per cent from a combined 50 per cent, which included a 25 per cent penalty imposed in August 2025 over India's purchases of Russian oil.
Then, on February 20, the US Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump's global tariffs, ruling that he had exceeded his authority. Trump responded with a temporary 10 per cent tariff under the 1974 Trade Act, leaving the status of several trade deals, including India's, uncertain. As recently as October 5, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the talks had reached a plateau and further concessions could be difficult.
The mood has shifted in recent days. Trump issued an executive order waiving sanctions and tariffs of up to 100 per cent on countries buying Russian oil and gas, a move that eased pressure on India.
Key Details From the Mumbai Talks
Rubio and Jaishankar discussed trade, energy, technology, defence and people-to-people ties, as well as the crisis in West Asia, according to All India Radio. Later, at a "Freedom 250" reception in Mumbai, Rubio said India and the US would sometimes disagree, but that their alignment on core national interests was "extraordinary". He called India a powerful and influential country and a strong geopolitical partner, and pointed to a free and open Indo-Pacific, where no single nation dominates international shipping, as a shared priority.
Rubio was also scheduled to travel to Jamnagar in Gujarat on Wednesday to visit Reliance Industries' refinery complex and meet chairman Mukesh Ambani, with discussions expected around Reliance refining more Venezuelan crude.
The UAE Angle
The Mumbai trip doubled as a Gulf diplomacy moment. Welcoming Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, Jaishankar said India-UAE bilateral trade has crossed $100 billion since the two countries signed their Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). He said two-way investment was growing and cooperation in defence, energy and technology was becoming strategic. He also called the Gulf situation a matter of deep concern, urged dialogue and diplomacy, and thanked the UAE for looking after the large Indian community there.
The three ministers then met together. Jaishankar described it as a useful exchange of perspectives on energy, connectivity and contemporary developments. No formal agreement was announced from the trilateral.
| Visit | US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, three-day India trip |
| Key talks | Rubio-Jaishankar bilateral in Mumbai, October 20, 2026 |
| Trade deal status | "Very, very close", a few points left, says Rubio |
| Interim deal (Feb 2) | Would have cut US tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from 50% |
| Trilateral | India, US and UAE on energy and connectivity |
| India-UAE trade | Crossed $100 billion since CEPA |
| Next stop | Reliance refinery, Jamnagar, Gujarat |
What It Means for India
A final trade deal would bring clarity to Indian exporters who have spent more than a year dealing with shifting US tariff rates, from textiles and gems to engineering goods. Lower and stable tariffs would make Indian products more competitive in the US, India's biggest export market. The UAE partnership, meanwhile, matters for energy security and for the millions of Indians who live and work in the Gulf, especially as conflict in the region intensifies.
What Happens Next
Negotiators now need to close the remaining gaps, and both governments will have to sign off on a final text. Neither side has given a date. Rubio's Jamnagar visit and any further statements during the trip will be watched closely for signals on timing and on energy cooperation.
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