Bay of Bengal Low Today: IMD Sees Depression by Oct 25, Sea Alert

A fresh weather system is taking shape over the Bay of Bengal, and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) says it could turn into a depression by the morning of October 25. A low-pressure area is very likely to form over the southeast and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal around today, October 23, and then move west-northwest while gaining strength. Fishermen have been told to stay off the sea from this evening.

For coastal Odisha and Andhra Pradesh, which have lived through several October storms, the next few days will be about watching bulletins closely. The IMD has not yet said where the system will head or how strong it will become, but its extended outlook flags a "high probability of cyclogenesis" over the Bay between October 23 and 29.

What the IMD has said so far

According to the evening bulletin issued on October 22, an upper-air cyclonic circulation was sitting over the southeast and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Islands. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is expected to form around October 23. The weather office expects the system to keep moving west-northwestwards and to intensify into a depression around the morning of October 25, with further strengthening possible over the following three days.

It is important to read this carefully. A low-pressure area is the first and weakest stage. A depression is the next step, and only if it strengthens further does it become a cyclonic storm and receive a name. As of now, the IMD has not forecast a cyclone, its track or a landfall point.

Wind and sea warnings, day by day

The marine forecast shows the system steadily building up over open water:

Advisory for fishermen, ports and shipping

The weather office has asked fishermen not to venture into the east-central and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal from the evening of October 23 until October 25, and into the west-central parts of the Bay from October 26 to 28. Those already at sea are being advised to return to the coast.

Fisheries departments and harbour authorities have been asked to alert fishing communities and keep watch on marine warnings. Shipping companies, port operators and offshore installations have been told to review their preparedness, while maritime agencies are expected to keep communication, vessel tracking and search-and-rescue systems ready. The advisories cover the period from October 23 to 29 and may be revised as the system evolves.

What it means for Odisha and Andhra Pradesh

For now, the land forecast for Odisha is calm. The Meteorological Centre in Bhubaneswar expects dry weather across the state until about October 26. After that, things change. Yellow warnings for thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds of 30-40 km/h have been issued for isolated places in coastal and adjoining districts on October 26 and 27, including Balasore, Bhadrak, Jajpur, Kendrapada, Jagatsinghpur, Cuttack, Puri, Khordha, Ganjam and Gajapati.

Heavy rain of 64.5 to 115.5 mm is also likely at isolated places in districts such as Balasore, Kendujhar, Mayurbhanj, Rayagada, Koraput, Gajapati, Ganjam and Puri in the days after that.

In Andhra Pradesh, the concern is more general at this stage. The northeast monsoon is already active over south India, and Tamil Nadu has been dealing with heavy rain from a separate low near its coast. Residents of coastal Andhra are being told to follow only official IMD updates, since there is no confirmed forecast of where the new system will go.

Why forecasters are cautious

Several weather models run by international agencies show the system strengthening further and approaching the east coast around October 27-28. However, these outputs differ on the track, with some pointing towards Odisha and north Andhra and others further south. The IMD has stayed away from naming any landfall area, and that is the line people should follow. Model projections change quickly at this distance and should not be read as forecasts.

Meteorologists in Odisha also note that the sea surface is warm, which usually helps such systems grow. This year's strong El Nino conditions have added to the uncertainty over how October systems behave.

What you can do right now

1. Track the official IMD bulletins, which are issued several times a day, and the district administration's updates.
2. Use the government's Mausam app for local forecasts and the Damini app for lightning alerts.
3. If you live along the coast, keep a basic emergency kit ready: torch, power bank, medicines, documents in a waterproof pouch and drinking water.
4. Avoid forwarding unverified "cyclone landfall" messages on WhatsApp. Only the IMD issues official cyclone warnings.
5. Fishing families should make sure boats are secured and nobody heads out against the advisory.

What happens next

The next 48 hours are key. Once the low-pressure area forms and becomes better organised, the IMD will be able to say more about its likely path. If it turns into a depression on October 25 as expected, the weather office will start issuing specific coastal warnings, and state disaster management teams in Odisha and Andhra Pradesh will step up preparations. ViralDose will keep following the official bulletins and update readers as the picture becomes clearer.

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