Brazil is choosing its next president today in one of the tightest runoffs the country has seen. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 80, is seeking a fourth term against right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, after neither man crossed 50% in the first round on October 4. Polls in Brazil close at 5 pm Brasilia time, which is 1:30 am on Monday in India, and the first official trends are expected soon after.
How the first round went
The first round surprised many observers. Flavio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) finished on top with 47.03% of valid votes, a little over 5.6 crore votes. Lula, of the Workers' Party (PT), came second with 45.16%, around 5.39 crore votes. The rest of the field was far behind: psychiatrist and author Augusto Cury got 2.89%, Renan Santos 2.24% and Goias politician Ronaldo Caiado 2.18%.
Because no one won an outright majority, Brazilian law sends the top two candidates to a second round three weeks later. That is today, October 25. Governor races that were not settled in the first round are also being decided on the same day.
Why it is a Bolsonaro, but not Jair
Jair Bolsonaro, who governed Brazil from 2019 to 2022, cannot stand. Brazil's electoral court declared him ineligible until 2030 in June 2023 for abuse of political power, and in September 2025 he was sentenced to 27 years in prison over his role in the plot to overturn the 2022 election result. His son Flavio, a senator from Rio de Janeiro, has carried the family name and the conservative vote into this contest, with Alfredo Gaspar as his running mate. Lula is again running alongside Vice-President Geraldo Alckmin.
What the final polls say
If the opinion polls are right, this one could go down to the wire. The last surveys published before voting all showed a gap within the margin of error.
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Runoff date | Sunday, October 25, 2026 |
| Candidates | Lula da Silva (PT) vs Flavio Bolsonaro (PL) |
| First round (Oct 4) | Flavio 47.03%, Lula 45.16% |
| Datafolha final poll | Flavio 51%, Lula 49% |
| Quaest final poll | Flavio 51%, Lula 49% |
| Futura final poll | Flavio 50.1%, Lula 49.9% |
| Registered voters | About 15.87 crore (158.7 million) |
| First-round turnout | 78.92% |
| Voting hours | 8 am to 5 pm Brasilia (4:30 pm to 1:30 am IST) |
| New president takes office | January 5, 2027 |
Across dozens of runoff polls tracked during the campaign, Flavio led in the large majority, though usually by only a point or two. Lula's camp has pointed to his record of comebacks; he lost the presidency in 1989, 1994 and 1998 before winning in 2002, and he beat Jair Bolsonaro narrowly in 2022.
When will the result be known?
Brazil votes on electronic machines, so counting is quick. The Superior Electoral Court starts publishing official numbers as soon as polls close, with frequent updates through the night. In the 2022 runoff, about 97% of votes had been counted roughly four and a half hours after polls closed. If the pattern holds, Indian readers waking up on Monday morning should know who has won, unless the margin is extremely thin.
What is at stake for Brazil
The campaign has been dominated by crime and public safety, corruption, the cost of living and Brazil's relationship with the United States under Donald Trump. The two candidates also offer very different visions on the environment and the Amazon, social spending and the role of the state in the economy. A televised debate in Sao Paulo on October 18 and big final rallies on Saturday underlined how polarised the country remains.
Why India is watching
Brazil is one of India's closest partners in the Global South. The two countries work together in BRICS, the IBSA forum with South Africa, and the G20, and trade between the two has grown steadily, with Indian pharma, auto and IT companies active in the Brazilian market. Lula has been a strong supporter of BRICS and of closer South-South ties. A change of government in Brasilia could shift the tone of Brazil's foreign policy, particularly towards Washington and Beijing, and that will matter for how BRICS works in the years ahead.
What happens next
Once the electoral court declares a winner, the loser is expected to concede, though both sides have been preparing for a close and possibly contested night. The president-elect will spend the next ten weeks forming a team before being sworn in on January 5, 2027, while newly elected governors take office a day later. ViralDose will update readers as the results come in.
Comments (0)